Since the beginning of the 2009 legislative session there has been non-stop speculation about the possibility of another override of a Governor Pawlenty veto.  At the same time, Gov. Pawlenty has repeatedly vowed to veto any tax increase legislation.  Let me put an end to the speculation about a veto override of a tax bill; it simply won’t happen this year.

First, the circumstances surrounding the veto override of the Transportation Bill in February of 2008 are very different than the circumstances we face today.  The Transportation lobby had been working for 10 years to pass a gas tax increase.  The highway construction contractors years earlier had made a deal with the devil and joined forces with the public transit lobby.  With these two organizations joining forces to support a massive transportation funding package with lots of promised spending projects, combined with the tragic collapse of the 35W bridge, the momentum swung in their direction for a gas tax increase.

Seizing the opportunity to blame the 35W bridge collapse on inept MNDOT inspections and improper maintenance, the pro-tax increase forces faced little difficulty pushing the bill through the legislature.  When the Minnesota Chamber of Commerce folded like a cheap chair and supported this $6.6 billion tax increase, the only thing left to accomplish an override was to find six Republican squishes.

In the aftermath of last year’s veto override, the landscape has changed.  Two of the “override six” House Republican legislators decided not to run for re-election.  Two others were defeated, one in a primary election, the other in the general election.  Of the two who survived the 2008 election, both have stated repeatedly they will not vote to override the Governor this year.  Rep. Abeler was recently quoted as saying: “Remember, we had crumbling roads and bridges falling down.  There is not that demand this time.  I’ll support the Governor.”

A recent Minnesota Poll conducted by the Star Tribune found nearly 60 percent of Minnesotans oppose across the board income tax increases and 40 percent of the poll respondents said they believed that the state’s $4.6 billion deficit should be balanced with spending cuts alone.  With only 4 percent favoring balancing the budget primarily with tax increases, its clear Minnesota voters aren’t in support of the approach being taken by the DFL legislature.

This polling data squares with the fact that both the House and Senate Tax Bills passed their respective bodies with the bare majority of votes needed.  While the Senate and House Tax Bills have major differences they are both bad news for Minnesota families.

The Senate Tax Bill raises income taxes for all Minnesota taxpayers and establishes a new top income tax rate of 9.25 percent.  The House Tax Bill also raises the top income tax rate, but “only” to 9 percent, but it also raises cigarette taxes, taxes on liquor and music downloads, plus it allows increases in the state’s sales tax by a half percent through an optional county tax process.

These two tax bills represent the worst of the worst in tax policy.  The Tax Conference Committee is like an old landfill that everyone knows stinks.  As one DFL Senator stated:  “Why should I vote for a tax bill that the Governor is going to veto anyway?”

If the House and Senate conferees can come to an agreement on a “toxic tax stew,” it will be hard work to get the required votes needed to pass the bill, especially given that it is D.O.A. when it hits the Governor’s desk.

So, Senate Majority Leader Larry Pogemiller and House Speaker Margaret Anderson-Kelliher can huff and puff all they want about the need to raise taxes, there is no veto override in sight when in comes to this year’s Tax Bill. 

This column originally appeared in the St. Paul Legal Ledger Capitol Report.


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