No one doubts that 2010 will be a very tumultuous year in Minnesota politics.  With everything from a wide open contest for governor to 201 legislative races, there are bound to be more twists and turns than a giant roller coaster as well as many upset tummies.

Speculating on the outcome of the governor’s race is a little like trying to predict next year’s World Series winner, but just like baseball – never count out the Yankees – and don’t bet against the Republicans in Minnesota. 

One thing that’s for certain is that the 2010 legislative session will start early and is guaranteed to be filled with acrimony.  First, there is the $1.2 billion budget shortfall, remember last year when Governor Pawlenty sent “legislators packing” only to balance the budget himself through unallottment?  Balancing the budget would be a significant challenge in itself, but when you mix in a lame duck governor who has promised not to raise taxes along with a large majority of Democrats whose only remedy to a budget problem is to raise taxes, you have a very volatile mix, with an unpredictable resolution.

But let’s not forget there is a gaggle of legislators competing for their political party’s endorsement for governor.  Every Capitol political pundit knows this is a toxic political stew.  And even without the gubernatorial banter, there will be the usual political discourse with the budget reductions and the horse trading on projects in the bonding bill.

While the official start of the legislative session isn’t until February 4, the committee schedule will be non-stop in January as legislators will want to appear hard at work even though they have no real solution for the budget deficit.  The reality is that spending decisions won’t be made until after the next budget forecast is announced in early March.

The 2010 session will be dominated by two items: bonding and the budget.  Democrats are already talking about a $1.5 billion bonding bill, which will just increase the state’s debt payments and dig the budget hole deeper in the out years. 

All of the bonding proposals are couched in terms of “job creation,” but trying to borrow your way to prosperity is even dumber than trying to tax your way to prosperity.  Of course this won’t stop legislators from trying to pass a bonding project for their district… which always looks “good” in campaign materials.

Round ten of the budget battle will occupy most of the debate but, the political posturing for the governor’s race will be ever present.  With a cast of a half-dozen incumbent legislators and another half-dozen in the hunt for their party’s endorsement for governor, it is certain to create political havoc and influence the outcome of the legislative session.  Will any self-respecting Democratic gubernatorial candidate not push to raise taxes?  Throw in the early endorsing conventions in April and the chances for a special legislative session in May are great.

But no matter how or when the legislature concludes its work, the main event for 2010 will be the governor’s race.  My prediction for the race is that… Senator Norm Coleman will enter the contest.  This alone is enough to reshuffle the deck on the Republican side of the slate.

Pat Anderson could switch to run for state auditor, the post she held from 2003 to 2007, and Rep. Tom Emmer could easily change to run for attorney general.  Even if neither of these events comes to fruition, Norm Coleman’s entry into the race will have a significant impact on the GOP ticket.

On the DFL side of the contest, it is likely the party endorsement will have little meaning due to Mark Dayton and Matt Entenza’s stated intent to run in the primary.  The 2010 primary could have major implications for both the GOP and the DFL governor’s race, with multiple candidates in both contests.  If this is the case, the two former U.S. Senators, have the best odds of winning their respective primaries.

However as in the past three governors’ races the final outcome in the general election may likely be determined by the independent candidate. It is unlikely in 2010 that the Independent candidate will win as was the case of Jesse Ventura in 1998, but there is no doubt that the Independent candidate will influence the outcome.

Whoever prevails in the November election they best be prepared to tackle the most challenging budget situation the state has ever encountered.  The current budget forecast foretells of a $5.4 billion shortfall and that number may grow between now and next year.  So, hope for the best in 2010 but prepare for the worst.  All in all 2010 promises to be a very bumpy ride.